Thiruvananthapuram – With July reaching its halfway mark, Kerala’s monsoon performance is showing a welcome turnaround. After a slow start to the southwest monsoon this month, rainfall activity has significantly intensified in recent days, raising hopes of achieving normal July rainfall levels, which typically average 653.5 mm across the state.
According to meteorological experts, July is historically the wettest month for Kerala. However, the first half of July 2025 saw subdued rainfall, leading to concerns of below-normal precipitation, in line with earlier long-range forecasts issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Monsoon Gains Strength in Second Half of July
The westerly winds from the Arabian Sea, a key driver of Kerala’s monsoon system, have strengthened considerably during the second half of the month. These winds are now making direct contact with Kerala’s coastline, creating favorable conditions for widespread rainfall across the region.
Though weather models struggled to accurately capture the developing monsoon pattern earlier in the month, the IMD’s extended forecast now predicts increased rainfall activity across most parts of the state over the next few days. After a brief lull expected mid-week, the monsoon is likely to regain intensity during the final stretch of July.
Forecast Outlook: Normal July Rainfall Within Reach
With this improvement in monsoon dynamics, Kerala is now on track to receive near-normal rainfall for the month of July. Meteorologists emphasize that the enhanced westerly stream, combined with favorable oceanic conditions, will help compensate for the early shortfall.
The development is seen as a positive sign for agriculture, water storage, and overall climate stability in the state, especially following concerns around erratic rainfall in previous monsoon cycles.